Modeling of regional freight flows of road transport in Ukraine

A transport system can be defined as a complex characterized by random value of demand, variable weather and climatic factors, set characteristics infrastructure, interconnections. One the key modes providing freight both in domestic international traffic is road. Its mobility ability to deliver cargo from door unique competitive advantage over other transport. To create an effective logistics infrastructure that meets demand for transport, first all, information needed on needs between regions country. Thus, it necessary look mathematical approaches modeling flows, combining their practical implementation using widely used software products (for example, MS Excel). The purpose paper build multifactor regression models input output transportation goods road each region Ukraine according publicly available statistical data State Statistics Service Ukraine. modern approach flows requires fast processing large amount data. In addition, method should universal possible capable quick simple changes under conditions change From this point view, most acceptable option considered based correlation analysis. general, task find dependence factors influence it. Such existing are connected with various macroeconomic indicators, well distance delivery. regional statistics “Lardi-Trans” website carriers shippers were taken initial modeling. list has been found significantly rating influencing compiled, among which gross product, volumes foreign trade (imports) product per one inhabitant region. absolute values coefficients range 0.351-0.974. lowest coefficient delivery, proves negligible relationship volume Multivariate thirteen, five two built. Accuracy parameter all model variants. normalized R-squared obtained does not fall below 84%, average approximation error rise above 1.6%, excellent performance models.